Who This Helps
This is for Product Managers who feel stuck in endless debate about what to test next. If your team is asking "Should we improve onboarding or boost engagement?", this method from the Product Portfolio Strategy course gives you a clear answer. It turns opinions into a score you can trust.
Mini Case
Your team debates two experiments: a new onboarding flow (Project A) and a referral program (Project B). You score each on three factors:
- Impact: Project A could lift activation by 15%. Project B might increase referrals by 10%.
- Confidence: You have user interviews backing Project A (High). Project B is a guess (Low).
- Effort: Project A needs 3 weeks of dev time. Project B needs 6 weeks.
You run the numbers. Project A wins. No more meetings about it. You just saved everyone 4 hours of debate.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List every experiment idea your team is considering. Write each on a sticky note.
- For each idea, rate Impact (1-5). How much could this move a key metric?
- Rate Confidence (1-5). How strong is your evidence this will work?
- Rate Effort (5-1, where 5 is low effort). How many weeks of work?
- Calculate: (Impact + Confidence + Effort). The highest score is your winner. Boom, prioritized.
Stuck scoring an idea? Pop this into your favorite AI tool:
"Act as a product strategy coach. I'm considering an experiment to [describe your idea in 10 words]. List three pieces of evidence I should look for to rate my confidence in this idea from 1 (pure guess) to 5 (rock-solid). Keep it practical."
Avoid These Traps
- The Hunch Trap: Picking the CEO's favorite idea without scoring it. Fight for the process.
- The Combo Trap: Trying to test two things at once. You won't know what worked. Pick one.
- The Perfection Trap: Spending 2 weeks 'perfecting' the scoring model. Use the simple 3-factor model above and just start.
- The Data Void Trap: Having zero evidence for confidence. Go talk to 5 users first. It's the best coffee break you'll take all week.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you will have one scored, prioritized experiment list. You'll walk into planning and say, "Based on our scoring, we're building X first. Here's why." Your team will feel focused, and you'll stop the endless back-and-forth. That's the power of a clear Product Portfolio Strategy.