Who This Helps
You're a Junior Analyst who wants to stop spinning on low-impact experiments. You need a simple way to pick the next test that actually moves the needle. This is straight from the Product Portfolio Strategy course, where we teach you to size bets and sequence work.
Mini Case
Imagine you have three experiment ideas: A, B, and C. Idea A could boost conversion by 12% but takes 7 days to run. Idea B might improve retention by 5% in 3 days. Idea C is a wild guess with no data. Using the Bet Sizing mission from the course, you assign confidence scores: A (high), B (medium), C (low). You prioritize A because it has the highest potential impact and solid confidence. Result: you ship a clean analysis showing why A wins, and your team runs it first.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List all your experiment ideas for the week.
- For each, estimate potential impact (low, medium, high) and effort (days to run).
- Add a confidence score: 1 (wild guess) to 5 (solid data).
- Multiply impact by confidence to get a priority score.
- Pick the idea with the highest score and start today.
Avoid These Traps
- Don't chase shiny ideas without data. That's how you waste 7 days on a dud.
- Don't overthink confidence scores. A quick 1-5 is fine.
- Don't ignore effort. A 12% gain isn't worth 14 days if you have a 5% gain in 2 days.
- Don't skip the analysis step. Ship a one-page summary so your boss sees your logic.
- Don't forget to revisit your list every week. Priorities shift.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you'll have one experiment prioritized and a one-page analysis ready to share. Your team will run the highest-impact move, and you'll look like the analyst who gets things done. Plus, you'll have a repeatable method for next week. That's a win.