Who This Helps
You're a growth marketer drowning in experiment ideas. Every channel team wants a slice of your time. But you need to move metrics—not just run tests. This is for you if you've ever picked an experiment because it was easy, not because it was impactful.
The Product Portfolio Strategy course teaches you to size bets and sequence work. One of its missions, Bet Sizing, shows you how to rank experiments by confidence and potential lift. No more guesswork.
Mini Case
Imagine you run growth for a SaaS tool. You have three experiments on deck:
- A: New email sequence (high confidence, 12% expected lift)
- B: LinkedIn ad test (medium confidence, 8% lift)
- C: Referral program tweak (low confidence, 5% lift)
Using portfolio logic, you prioritize A first. It takes 3 days to set up. You run it, see a 10% lift in trial sign-ups, and free up capacity for B. Without this framework, you might have chased the shiny referral idea and wasted a week.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List all active experiments – Write down every test you're considering this month. No filtering yet.
- Rate each on two axes – Give each a confidence score (1-5) and an impact score (1-5). Be honest, not optimistic.
- Plot them on a grid – High confidence + high impact goes first. Low confidence + low impact gets cut or deferred.
- Pick your top 2 – Focus your team on the highest-impact moves. Run one, prep the next.
- Review weekly – Spend 15 minutes every Monday checking if priorities shifted. A new data point might bump an experiment up.
Avoid These Traps
- Falling for the squeaky wheel – Just because a stakeholder shouts loudest doesn't mean their experiment is best. Stick to your grid.
- Overloading your plate – Running 5 experiments at once dilutes focus. Pick 2 and finish them.
- Ignoring confidence – A 20% lift sounds great, but if your confidence is 2/5, it's a gamble. Trust the numbers.
- Forgetting to kill – If an experiment shows no signal after 7 days, kill it. Free up capacity for better bets.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you'll have a prioritized list of experiments with clear rationale. You'll know exactly which channel move to execute next. No second-guessing. No wasted effort. Just a focused plan that moves your metrics.
And hey, you might even have time to grab coffee without checking your experiment dashboard. That's a win too.