Who This Helps
You're a founder operator juggling a dozen ideas. Every day, you ask: "What should I test next?" You want to move fast, but you also want to move smart. This is for you.
Mini Case
Meet Sarah. She runs a small SaaS team. She had three experiments lined up: a new onboarding flow, a pricing tweak, and a feature request from a big client. Instead of guessing, she used the Product Portfolio Strategy course to size each bet. The pricing tweak had a 70% confidence of boosting revenue by 12% in 7 days. The feature request? 20% confidence and would take 3 weeks. She picked the pricing tweak. Revenue jumped 12% in 5 days. That's the power of compact evidence.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List your active experiments. Write down every test you're considering this week. No more than 5.
- Add a rough confidence score. For each experiment, guess how sure you are it will work. Use a simple 1-10 scale. Be honest.
- Estimate the impact. What's the best-case outcome? More signups? Faster retention? Higher revenue? Write a single number (like +$500 or +5% conversion).
- Calculate the effort. How many hours or days will it take? Be realistic. A quick A/B test might take 2 hours. A full feature might take 2 weeks.
- Pick the winner. Divide impact by effort. Multiply by confidence. The highest number is your next experiment. Start today.
Avoid These Traps
- Falling in love with your own idea. Just because you thought of it doesn't mean it's the best bet. Let the numbers decide.
- Ignoring low-effort wins. A tiny tweak that takes 2 hours can beat a big feature that takes 2 weeks. Don't overlook the quick ones.
- Analysis paralysis. Don't spend a day perfecting your scores. A rough estimate is better than no estimate. Move fast.
- Forgetting to revisit. Your priorities change. Check your list every Monday. The highest-impact move might shift.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you'll have run one experiment that you're confident will move the needle. No more spinning your wheels. You'll know exactly why you picked it. And you'll have a simple system to repeat next week. That's a win. And hey, you might even have time for a coffee break.
Remember: the goal isn't to test everything. It's to test the one thing that matters most. Go get it.