Who This Helps
You're a founder operator juggling a dozen ideas. Every week, you face a new experiment that could move the needle—or waste your team's time. You need a way to pick the one bet that actually matters, without drowning in data or analysis paralysis.
This article is for you. It's built around the Product Portfolio Strategy course, which teaches you to size bets, sequence work, and keep stakeholders aligned. Here, we'll focus on one skill: prioritizing your next experiment.
Mini Case
Meet Sarah, founder of a B2B SaaS startup. Her team had three experiments on the table: a new onboarding flow, a pricing change, and a referral program. Each felt urgent. Sarah used a simple evidence grid to rank them.
She scored each experiment on three factors: expected impact (1-10), confidence in data (1-10), and effort (1-10, lower is better). The onboarding flow scored 8 impact, 6 confidence, 4 effort. Pricing change scored 6 impact, 3 confidence, 7 effort. Referral program scored 7 impact, 5 confidence, 5 effort.
By multiplying impact by confidence and dividing by effort, Sarah got a priority score: onboarding (12), referral (7), pricing (2.6). She ran the onboarding experiment first. It boosted activation by 12% in 7 days. That win funded the next experiment.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List your active experiments. Write down every bet you're considering this week. No more than five.
- Score each on impact. Ask: "If this works, how much does it move my key metric?" Use a 1-10 scale.
- Rate your confidence. How strong is your evidence? Do you have user interviews, data, or just a hunch? Score 1-10.
- Estimate effort. How many days or dollars will this take? Score 1-10 (1 = quick, 10 = huge lift).
- Calculate priority. Use the formula: (impact x confidence) / effort. Pick the highest score. Run that experiment first.
Avoid These Traps
- Falling in love with a shiny idea. Just because it's exciting doesn't mean it's high-impact. Let the numbers guide you.
- Ignoring low-confidence bets. A high-impact idea with low confidence isn't worthless—it just needs more evidence before you commit big resources.
- Overcomplicating the scoring. Don't spend hours perfecting the numbers. A rough 1-10 is fine. Speed matters more than precision.
- Forgetting to revisit. Your priority list changes as you learn. Re-score every week.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you'll have one clear experiment to run. No more second-guessing. Your team will know exactly what to work on. And you'll have a simple system to repeat next week.
That's the power of compact evidence. It turns a messy list into a single, focused move. And it's exactly what the Product Portfolio Strategy course teaches you to do at scale.
Now go pick your next experiment. And hey, if you nail it, buy yourself a coffee—you've earned it.