Who This Helps
You're a founder operator juggling a dozen ideas. You need to decide which experiment to run next, fast. The Product Portfolio Strategy course is built for leaders like you who want to size bets and sequence work without drowning in data.
Mini Case
Imagine you have three potential experiments: a pricing tweak, a new feature, and a marketing channel test. Each could move the needle, but you have only one team and one week. Using the Bet Sizing mission from the course, you estimate confidence and effort. The pricing tweak has 70% confidence and takes 2 days. The new feature has 40% confidence and takes 10 days. The marketing test has 60% confidence and takes 3 days. Your pick? The pricing tweak. It's the highest-impact move with the least risk. You run it, see a 12% lift in conversions, and save 7 days of wasted effort.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List every experiment you're considering. Keep it to five or fewer.
- For each, estimate two numbers: confidence (0-100%) and effort (in days).
- Calculate a priority score: confidence divided by effort. Higher is better.
- Pick the experiment with the highest score. That's your next move.
- Run it this week. No overthinking. Just do it.
Avoid These Traps
- Don't fall in love with a big idea that takes forever. Effort matters more than excitement.
- Don't wait for perfect data. Compact evidence is enough. A rough estimate beats no estimate.
- Don't try to do everything at once. One experiment per week is plenty.
- Don't ignore the "kill criteria" from the Portfolio Guardrails mission. If an experiment fails a basic test, drop it.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you'll have run one focused experiment, learned something real, and freed up your team for the next priority. That's faster decisions, less wasted effort, and a clear path forward. And hey, you might even have time for a coffee break.