Who This Helps
This is for product managers who have a list of experiments but no clear way to pick the next one. You want to stop guessing and start deciding. The Product Portfolio Strategy course helps you size bets and sequence work so every experiment moves the needle.
Mini Case
Imagine you manage a SaaS product. Your team has three experiment ideas: a new onboarding flow, a pricing page tweak, and a feature request from a big customer. You only have capacity for one this sprint. Using the Bet Sizing mission from the course, you give each idea a rough size (small, medium, large) and a confidence score (low, medium, high). The onboarding flow is medium size with high confidence. The pricing tweak is small with low confidence. The feature request is large with medium confidence. You pick the onboarding flow. After two weeks, it lifts activation by 12%. That’s a win you can measure.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List every experiment you’re considering. Keep it to five or fewer.
- Give each one a size: small (1-2 days), medium (3-5 days), or large (6+ days).
- Rate your confidence: low (gut feel), medium (some data), high (strong signal).
- Multiply size by confidence to get a rough impact score. Higher is better.
- Pick the experiment with the highest score. Start it today.
Avoid These Traps
- Don’t pick the easiest experiment first. Easy often means low impact.
- Don’t let the loudest stakeholder decide. Use data, not volume.
- Don’t skip sizing. A “quick” experiment can blow up to three days.
- Don’t forget to define what success looks like before you start.
- Don’t run more than one experiment at a time if your team is small.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you will have one experiment selected, sized, and ready to run. You’ll know exactly why it’s the highest-impact move. Your team will stop spinning and start shipping. That’s the power of turning product questions into measurable decisions.