Who This Helps
This is for product managers who have a list of possible experiments and no clear way to pick the one that matters most. You want to stop guessing and start deciding. The Product Portfolio Strategy course is built for exactly this moment.
Mini Case
Imagine you manage a team that ships three features per quarter. Last quarter, you ran two experiments. One showed a 12% lift in activation. The other showed nothing. You spent equal time on both. That’s a waste. A simple bet-sizing method from the course would have told you to double down on the first experiment and kill the second after one week.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List every experiment you’re considering this month. Keep it to five or fewer.
- For each experiment, write down the expected impact on one key metric. Use a range, like 5% to 15%.
- Estimate the effort in days. Be honest. A two-week experiment costs real capacity.
- Score each experiment by impact divided by effort. The highest score wins.
- Pick the top experiment. Start it this week. Ignore the rest until it’s done.
Avoid These Traps
- Don’t fall in love with a shiny idea. Love the data more.
- Don’t run three experiments at once. You’ll learn nothing well.
- Don’t ignore confidence. A 50% chance of 20% lift is not the same as 90% chance of 5% lift.
- Don’t let stakeholders pick experiments by gut. Use the scoring system.
- Don’t forget to set a kill criterion. Decide upfront when to stop.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you will have one experiment picked, sized, and scheduled. Your team will know exactly what to build and why. That’s one less decision to debate and one more move that actually moves the needle. And hey, you’ll also have a clean list of experiments you can safely ignore. Feels good, right?