Who This Helps
This is for product managers who have a list of experiments but no clear way to pick the next one. You want to stop guessing and start deciding. The Product Portfolio Strategy course helps you size bets and sequence work so every experiment moves the needle.
Mini Case
Imagine you manage a team of five. You have three experiment ideas: improve onboarding, add a referral feature, and reduce load time. Each could take 2-4 weeks. You run a quick bet-sizing exercise from the Portfolio Map mission. Onboarding scores 8/10 on impact but 9/10 on effort. Referral scores 6/10 on impact and 5/10 on effort. Load time scores 9/10 on impact and 3/10 on effort. You pick load time first. After two weeks, load time drops by 12%, and user retention increases by 7%. That is a measurable win.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List every experiment you are considering. Keep it to five or fewer.
- For each, estimate impact on a scale of 1 to 10. Use your best guess.
- Estimate effort on the same scale. Be honest about dependencies.
- Divide impact by effort. The highest number is your next experiment.
- Run that experiment for one week. Measure one key metric. Adjust or move on.
Avoid These Traps
- Do not pick the easiest experiment first. Easy rarely moves the needle.
- Do not ignore confidence. If you are unsure about an estimate, mark it low.
- Do not run more than one experiment at a time. You will not know what worked.
- Do not skip the kill criteria. Define when to stop before you start.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you will have one experiment selected and running. You will know exactly why you chose it. That is one less question on your plate and one more decision backed by a simple framework. And hey, you might even free up time for coffee.