Who This Helps
You're a founder operator juggling a dozen ideas. Every week, you ask: "What should I test next?" But you end up chasing the loudest stakeholder or the shiniest new feature. This is for you if you want to make faster decisions with compact evidence.
Mini Case
Meet Sarah, a founder operator at a 12-person SaaS startup. She had three experiments on her plate: a new onboarding flow, a referral program, and a pricing tier. She used the Product Portfolio Strategy course to size each bet. The onboarding flow had a 70% confidence of boosting activation by 15%, but needed 4 weeks of dev time. The referral program had 40% confidence but could be tested in 3 days. She applied kill criteria: if the referral program didn't show 10% sign-ups in 2 weeks, she'd drop it. She ran that experiment first. In 14 days, it drove 12% new sign-ups. She saved weeks of wasted effort.
Do This Now (5 Steps)
- List your active experiments. Write down every bet you're considering. Keep it to 5 or fewer.
- Size each bet. For each, estimate effort (in days) and confidence (low, medium, high). Use rough numbers, like 3 days for a quick test.
- Define kill criteria. For each experiment, write one clear condition that means "stop." Example: "If less than 5% conversion after 100 visitors, kill it."
- Pick one experiment to run next. Choose the one with the highest confidence-to-effort ratio. That's your highest-impact move.
- Set a 7-day check-in. Review results against your kill criteria. Decide to continue, pivot, or kill.
Avoid These Traps
- Falling in love with an idea. Your experiment is a test, not a baby. Be ready to kill it.
- Ignoring effort. A high-confidence bet that takes 6 weeks might not be worth it if a medium-confidence bet takes 2 days.
- No clear stop rule. Without kill criteria, you'll keep pouring time into a losing bet.
- Overcomplicating sizing. Don't spend hours on spreadsheets. A simple 1-3 scale for effort and confidence works.
- Forgetting to check in. Set a calendar reminder for day 7. No exceptions.
Your Win by Friday
By Friday, you'll have one experiment picked, sized, and ready to run. You'll know exactly when to stop it. That's focus. That's speed. And honestly, it feels way better than drowning in a dozen half-started tests.